When is Brexit?

When is Brexit?

The state of affairs in the UK and the Brexit deal


When it comes to the state of affairs in the UK and how things are faring with respect to the economy and a Brexit deal, inevitably, things could still take a twist or two. We all know that the October 31st deadline set by the UK Prime Minister did not happen, and from the look of things, everybody has one question in mind: when is Brexit finally going to happen? 

So, after months and months of indecision, MPs have finally voted for a general election. This is in a bid to quench the level of uncertainty that surrounds the Brexit deal, the economy, and the country at large. This general election means that the stalemate at Westminster is finally going to come to an end.

While the parties get ready to head out on the campaign trail, what does that mean for Brexit? When is Brexit finally going to happen?

More Frustration for Boris Johnson

MPs said no to Boris Johnson when he tried to get his Brexit bill through the Commons in just a couple of days, which meant that he paused the process in its entirety. Now, with the elections in view, what this means is that there will  be no parliament, no MPs, no debates, no votes, and no Brexit bill.

However, all those tortured hours of debate about Brexit in the Commons chamber might not be a waste if Boris Johnson wins the election. If he’s back in Number 10 and the Conservatives have a big majority, he’ll bring his Brexit bill back to the Commons, and he’ll have enough MPs to get it through a vote, which means it would finally become law and the UK would leave the EU. 

Possible Outcomes

So, looking at what we have pointed to here as the first possible outcome, it seems like the “When is Brexit going to happen?” trend is finally going to come to an end. Nevertheless, if you are in that category, there is something you need to bear in mind. Just when you think this outcome would put an end to all the confusion, you have to also understand that if Boris Johnson gets that Brexit bill through, then he still has to come back to the Commons to talk about a future trading relationship, and that means more debates, and more votes in parliament until he can get an agreement with the EU on the future relationship.

If, on the other hand, Boris Johnson does not win, it could be a Labour government led by Jeremy Corbyn, and his first plan is to tear up the agreement that Boris Johnson reached with the European Union and try and get his own. He’ll be trying to start these talks all over again if the EU allows him to. Once he has a new deal – if he gets one – then they will take it back to parliament and finally take it out to the country in a second referendum to see what everybody else thinks about his new deal. 

Finally, if none of the parties get the majority, it would be a hung parliament, which for many people would be a total nightmare because this outcome means more delay and more indecision. Parties would have to come together to find a way forward, which would likely mean a compromise on when Brexit would happen.

Whoever gets into Number 10 will have to work to the deadline of 31st January 2020. That’s the point at which the deadline the EU has given to the UK runs out, and they have warned it will be the last. There needs to be a new deal by then, a new extension if one is allowed, and if there isn’t, then the UK might be leaving with a no-deal. Leaving the EU without a deal means that the UK would immediately leave the Customs Union as well as every single market agreement designed to make trade easier. Many businesses and politicians call for the country to leave the EU but not in the case of a no-deal as this would damage the country. While many believe this to be true, others, such as the Brexit party, want to leave the EU without a deal, stating that the highlighted risks are exaggerated.

The Long Wait

So, the question of when Brexit is or is not going to happen is one which nobody can answer with certainty at the moment. It all boils down to the election as we can see, and whoever comes out on top will begin to go through proceedings, as highlighted earlier in this article.

The future of the UK will depend on the vote in the next general election and, after that, the EU leaders will go to the new Prime Minister and ask him to make a clear decision on what he wants, as highlighted in earlier sections. This again supports my point on how uncertain it is to give an answer if someone asks you when Brexit is going to happen.

When Brexit happens or not, similar referendums are likely to take place in many other European countries. This would be the time when the European Union would decide if it should be stronger with fewer borders amongst the states, or eventually let each member go its own way. Although there are many nations such as Germany, France, and Italy who do not like the possibility of life without a union, there are other countries in Eastern Europe with a strong nationalist sentiment.

With this in mind, we have to take note that such an outcome does not mean an end to the EU, but instead there is a problematic phase where countries realise what they should do to make the union better and stronger. In every European country, there is always an anti-immigration party pushing against the union, with the majority of them still far from earning the majority of the votes. Will the EU be able to convince the voters that staying in the EU is the best possible future for them, or will the exit of the UK under the circumstances of Brexit be an eye-opener to other European countries? Only time will tell.

When Brexit matters arise, we all know that it’s only a matter of time before we know where the UK stands. Leave your comments below on your thoughts about Brexit and how things are turning out. 

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